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America is seeing both fast growth and high inflation

What can nominal GDP reveal about the economic recovery? AMERICA MAY be suffering from high inflation but its nominal GDP, which combines output and prices in a single measure, was almost exactly at its long-term trend in the third quarter. It has blown past forecasts made before President Joe Biden introduced $1.9trn in fiscal stimulus in March. Some doves argue that the return to trend is a sign that policy has been well-calibrated, unlike after the global financial crisis. But nominal GDP may now be overshooting: many forecasters think it is growing at double-digit annualised rates in the fourth quarter, as stimulus fuels fast growth and high inflation. This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “America is seeing both fast growth and high inflation”

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