What can nominal GDP reveal about the economic recovery? AMERICA MAY be suffering from high inflation but its nominal GDP, which combines output and prices in a single measure, was almost exactly at its long-term trend in the third quarter. It has blown past forecasts made before President Joe Biden introduced $1.9trn in fiscal stimulus in March. Some doves argue that the return to trend is a sign that policy has been well-calibrated, unlike after the global financial crisis. But nominal GDP may now be overshooting: many forecasters think it is growing at double-digit annualised rates in the fourth quarter, as stimulus fuels fast growth and high inflation. This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “America is seeing both fast growth and high inflation”
